Need help understanding the size of backup files

Hello,
I do an incremental image (partition) backup daily. I have set up the file exclusions to exclude most of my personal stuff: C:\User folders, folders with image, videos, documents etc which I backup separately. My goal is to keep the scope of the backup down to the absolute minimum to keep the time and size requirements down and to essentially the OS and applicatios.
What I don't understand is that the size of the backup files seem to be all over the place. For example
here the sequence of file size for a series of four staring with the full backup and then the incrementals:
54,12,1.5,0.2 GB. Why is the first incremental so large and the last so low? I know for example that there was virtually no activity on my computer (no huge downloads, no new programs etc) in the four days that it took to make these backups. I have also seen the size of the first full backup vary as much as 50%, though I have not changed the exclusions.
Appreciate any insights.
Thanks

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