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Worst case of size of incremental backup

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I need to know, which is the worst case of size to an incremental block backup, to make my backup strategy.
I know that when make defragment, the next incremental would be the size of full backup.
Except this parameter. Which is the dependence of the size of an incremental with the size of the full backup. Example of this: If i have an full backup which size is 150 GB, but the size of hard drive that backup is 320 Gb, this means that still have 170 Gb. Now the question is that: The next incremental in the worst case would be 170 GB, or could be biggest?

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The worst case is every sector in use then or in use now has been written to since the last backup, so the larger of the total sectors in use at time of last backup or total sectors in use presently is the largest the backup could be (not withstanding backup compression reducing that amount somewhat and checksum data adding a bit to the size).